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Product Details:
Publisher: Recorded Books (August 2007)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 1428166556
ISBN-13: 978-1428166554
Product Dimensions:
5.8 x 5.4 x 1.4 inches
Shipping Weight: 12 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
Opinion Editorial-author Nassim Nicholas Taleb continues his exploration of randomness in his fascinating new book The Black Swan, in which he examines the influence of highly improbable and unpredictable events that have a big impact fileserve geophysics. Engaging and enlightening The Black Swan is a book that can change your thinking about the world, a book that Chris Anderson calls, "a delightful romp through history, economics and weaknesses of human nature fileserve geophysics." Reviews of Anderson invited world under customer reviews. Chris Anderson Chris Anderson is editor in chief of Wired Magazine and author of The Long Tail: Why the future of the company is selling less of more Four. 100 years earlier, Francis Bacon warned that our minds are wired to deceive us, "Beware the error in the undisciplined thinkers most easily fall. - They are the real distorting prisms of human nature." Chief among them. "Assuming more order than chaos in nature," Now consider the typical stock-market "today announced the submission of investors in the interests of the Iranian oil production." Sigh. We continue to do so. Our brains are wired for narrative, not statistical uncertainty. And when we say, simple stories to explain complex thing we do not - and especially not -. know the truth is that we have no idea why stock markets rise or fall on any given day, and for some reason, we will certainly give too simplistic, if not completely wrong. Nassim Nicholas Taleb first this argument in Fooled by Randomness, an engaging look at the history and the reasons for our predilection for self-deception, if there are statistics now at The Black Swan:. The impact of highly improbable, it focuses on that most dismal of sciences, predicting the future, the prognosis is not only in the heart of Wall. Street, but it is something each of us every time we make an insurance payment or strap on a seatbelt. The problem, Nassim explains, is that we have too much weight on the likelihood of repeat events of the past (diligently trying to follow the path of the "Millionaire Next Door" irreplaceable, if chance is a better explanation). Instead, the really important events are rare and unpredictable. He calls them Black Swans, which refers to a thought experiment of the 17th Century philosophy. Were in Europe, everything we had ever seen white swans, in fact, "all swans are white" has long been used as an example was the type of scientific truth. So what is the chance to see a black? impossible to calculate, or at least they were until 1697, when explorers found Cygnus atratus in Australia. Nassim argues that most of the events that are truly important in our world's rare and unpredictable, and so tries to extract generalizable stories to explain them to emotionally satisfying, but it's practically useless. 11th September is one example, and stock market crashes are another. Or, as saying, "History does not crawl, it jumps." Our assumptions grow out of the bell-curve predictability of what he calls "Mediocristan" while our world is really shaped by the wild swings PowerLaw "Extremistan." Frankly, I'm a fan of long, Taleb and a few were ihrenPlatz of my comments on the drafts of the book. I also look at the world through the lens PowerLaw, and I also think it shows how many of our assumptions are wrong. But Taleb takes this to another level with a wonderful romp through the history, economy and weaknesses of human nature. - Chris Anderson- This text refers to the Hardcover edition.
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